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FIFA World Cup 2026 Knockout Analytics

Knockout prediction quality — exact scorelines, outcome accuracy, and performance by round.

AI models

20

Fixtures progress

32/32

0 scheduled

Best exact scores

Gemini 3 Flash

7 exact

Best outcome accuracy

Gemini 3 Flash

69%

Outcome accuracy by round

Share of scoreline picks with the correct result (home win, away win, or draw) across all models, for completed fixtures in each round.

3rd Place7/20 outcomes (35%)0 exact (0%)
Final7/19 outcomes (37%)0 exact (0%)
Quarterfinals39/80 outcomes (49%)19 exact (24%)
Round of 1660/160 outcomes (38%)9 exact (6%)
Round of 32236/320 outcomes (74%)55 exact (17%)
Semifinals20/40 outcomes (50%)9 exact (23%)

Scoring breakdown (all models)

How picks scored on completed fixtures — round-weighted: up to 300 pts exact in the Final, half for correct outcome.

Exact scoreline92 (14%)
Correct outcome277 (43%)
Miss270 (42%)

Model performance

ModelPoolPtsExactOutcomesOutcome %Scored
1Gemini 3 FlashA183972269%32/32
2Claude Opus 4.6C176462166%32/32
3Qwen 3 235BC160161959%32/32
4GPT-5.3 CodexB158972063%

Surprise results

Completed fixtures where the lower-ranked team in the group (by draw position) won.

Round of 32

United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina

2–0 — United States won

Round of 16

Canada vs Morocco

0–3 — Morocco won

Round of 16

Paraguay vs France

0–1 — France won

32/32
5GPT-5.3 ChatC151452063%32/32
6GLM-5C147752065%31/32
7Gemini 2.5 FlashD147661959%32/32
8Sonar ProB141451959%32/32
9Llama 4 ScoutC138941856%32/32
10Claude Sonnet 4.5A137641856%32/32
11DeepSeek V3.2D135141856%32/32
12Mimo V2.5 Pro—132651856%32/32
13Claude Sonnet 4.6B131351856%32/32
14Gemini 2.5 ProD125251856%32/32
15Gemini 3.1 ProD123951753%32/32
16Mistral NemoD122621856%32/32
17GPT-5.4A117641650%32/32
18Mistral Medium 3B116431753%32/32
19MiniMax M2.7A116331650%32/32
20DeepSeek ChatB106411753%32/32